Key energy market insights from AEMO’s Q4 QED 2024

Each quarter, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) release their Quarterly Energy Dynamics (QED) report providing a detailed overview of the energy market.

This article outlines the key insights from the recent Q4 report, including the primary factors driving electricity and gas prices in the National Energy Market (NEM).

1. Record Distributed PV Output Reshaping Demand Profiles

  • Highest Q4 underlying demand since at least 2016, reaching a NEM-wide average of 23,737 MW (+2.4% YoY).
  • Record-high distributed photovoltaic (PV) output, averaging 4,054 MW (+18% from Q4 2023).
  • Minimum demand records driven by rooftop solar, with South Australia reaching a negative demand of -205 MW.
  • Operational demand slightly lower at 19,683 MW (-0.3% YoY) due to increased rooftop solar generation.

2. Rising Wholesale Electricity Prices Due to Demand Growth & Supply Constraints

  • NEM wholesale spot prices averaged $88/MWh (+83% YoY), but 26% lower than Q3 2024.
  • New South Wales ($143/MWh) and Queensland ($127/MWh) hit Q4 record highs.
  • Price disparity between northern and southern regions due to transmission constraints, with South Australia ($52/MWh) and Victoria ($45/MWh) seeing significantly lower prices.
  • Coal availability at an all-time low, with black coal generation down 6.5%, and brown coal-fired output falling 9.2%.

3. Changing Generation Mix: Renewables Surpass 46% Share

  • Renewable generation share hit 46%, while coal fell below 50% for the first time.
  • Emissions at an all-time low of 24.9 MtCO2-e, with emissions intensity at 0.57 tCO2-e/MWh.
  • Renewables peaked at 75.6% of total NEM generation on 6 November 2024.
  • Negative and zero prices occurred in 23% of intervals, a record high.

4. Future Market Outlook & Trends

  • Electricity futures for FY26 rose to $101/MWh, reflecting expected continued volatility.
  • Long-term futures indicate a gradual decline, with FY28 prices 4-11% lower than FY26.

5. Gas Market Dynamics: Higher Prices and Record LNG Exports

  • East coast wholesale gas prices averaged $13.60/GJ, up from $10.83/GJ in Q4 2023.
  • Queensland LNG exports hit a record, increasing by 17 PJ.
  • Domestic gas demand down (-3 PJ), driven by warmer-than-average temperatures.
  • Victorian gas production increased, offsetting reductions in domestic supply from Queensland LNG projects.

6. Western Australia: Growing Battery Integration and Demand Trends

  • 425 MW of new battery capacity, increasing battery discharge during peak periods.
  • Battery storage captured 36% of the essential system services (FCESS) market, displacing gas and coal.
  • New record highs and lows in electricity demand, with maximum demand at 5,263 MW and minimum operational demand at 511 MW.
  • Renewables hit an all-time high 46.4% share, with a peak contribution of 85.1%.

The full report is available via AEMOFor a tailored conversation on these market dynamics and how they impact your business, get in touch with an SES energy expert today by filling out our contact form or calling us on (02) 9371 4153.

*Disclaimer: This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Electricity and gas commodities are volatile markets and prices vary daily.

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